The EVolution #18: Getting personal
Electric bicycles, scooters, and buses are also vital to the future of transportation
In this newsletter I've predominantly talked about EVs in the context of personal automobiles. The shift to zero-emissions cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks is hugely important. However, for environmental, traffic, and public health reasons, it's crucial that the electrification of transportation go much further.
A big part of this is reducing dependence on cars entirely—that is, modifying towns and cities to be easier to navigate on foot, by public transportation, or via “micromobility” options like bikes and scooters. The other part, which I’ll return to in a future post, is replacing commercial and industrial vehicles such as semi trucks and delivery vans with electric versions. (Together, they form the strategy I call: EVerything EVerywhere All at Once!)
Bikes
I’m an enthusiastic cyclist, riding recreationally and as my main form of daily commuting for much of my time living in Evanston and San Francisco. This has been on “traditional” bikes, but I’m now convinced that e-bikes are the practical solution for many transportation needs. For those not familiar, they work nearly identically to regular bikes, but for the assistance of an electric motor providing each pedal stroke with more power.
Cover more ground in less time!
Tackle hills effortlessly!
Have enough speed to keep up with traffic on most city streets!
Reach your office or your friend’s house party without having sweated through your clothes! (If that last one sounds personal, well… 😬)
Over 1 million e-bikes will be sold in the US this year—more than the projected number of electric cars. Especially in crowded cities, people switching from cars to bikes is a huge positive. “Biking reduces carbon emissions and it doesn’t require the same amount of physical space or road maintenance that cars do,” notes NYU’s Sarah Kaufman.
I love what Lyft is doing in my home city of San Francisco (under the label “Bay Wheels”), in Chicago (“Divvy”), and especially in New York (“Citi Bike”), where rent-per-ride electric bikes are flourishing. On my last NYC visit, the program was clearly in high demand. I found riding an e-bike cross-town Manhattan was way faster and more fun than taking the subway or bus, and far cheaper than taxing a taxi or rideshare.
Once you discover the convenience, it’s hard not to want to commit. I do fantasize about a fancy VanMoof that costs over $2,500, but several popular makes (e.g. Rad Power) can be had for $1,500 or less. While these are accessible to a broad swath of the population, additional policy decisions can make e-bikes accessible to even more folks. Reports Bloomberg:
States like California and Vermont have stepped in with rebate programs. A bill recently introduced in New York State would offer a 50% rebate, totaling up to $1,500… Many U.S. cities also have incentive programs: Austin offers a $300 rebate on purchases, and Denver rolled out a $400 rebate, and up to $1,200 for low-income residents.
Now let’s also get more residents in city neighborhoods across the country advocating for bike lanes, especially protected bike lanes that separate cyclists from automobiles via physical barriers such as curbs, planters, or posts!
Scooters
Remember a few years ago when cheap rental electric scooters, almost overnight, flooded cities across the country/world? They offered an inexpensive method of short-distance commuting that decreased car traffic and competition for limited city parking spots. They also received much-deserved scorn and opprobrium, as the companies providing these services had given no thought to rider safety, sidewalk obstruction, and general etiquette.
These days, the scooter rental services seem to have been brought under heel by city regulators wherever they operate. The convenience for individual riders in urban locations is real, but the concerns for the business model of companies like Bird and Lime persist. (Hitchcock’s The Birds may be archetypal horror, but have you seen the stock chart for $BRDS?)
There has already been much industry shakeout and consolidation (e.g. Skip shutting down, Jump sold to Lime, Spin sold to Tier). I suspect that with a focus on slower but more sustainable growth, there can be a provider or two who is viable long-term.
Buses
In many places, shared buses have come a long way from the loud, black-cloud-spewing behemoths of our youth. San Francisco has in recent years added a significant fleet of hybrid buses as well as zero-emissions trolleys that are mostly tied to a fixed course of overhead wires. The next step is fully-battery-powered, zero-emissions, quiet-running, easier-to-maintain electric buses—made by the likes of Chinese giant BYD, Canada’s New Flyer and Nova Bus (owned by Volvo), and a Bay Area-based startup I’m rooting for, Proterra.
Among big cities, Los Angeles is setting the pace, with a 2030 all-electric goal and an announcement last fall that they had already logged 900,000 electric miles in service. Elsewhere:
SF wants an all-electric bus fleet by 2035 and is in the early stages of testing pilot vehicles on select routes
Chicago has a 2040 goal and has deployed Proterra buses on one route
NYC also has a 2040 goal, aims to have by end of year 75 electric buses (~1% of its fleet, although 1,300 hybrids are already on the road)