The EVolution #2: Everyone wants to be the next Tesla
Rivian, Lucid, Fisker, and more. Are any new EV manufacturers worth getting amped up about?
Whether or not you believe Tesla is justifiably the most valuable auto manufacturer in the world, the company has spent the past several years successfully developing and expanding a product line of technologically-advanced, driver-beloved vehicles (that also happen to be electric). Successful new auto manufacturers don't just appear out of thin air; Tesla was the first U.S. car company to go public since Ford back in 1956!
A host of aspirants want to replicate Tesla's success as standalone makers of emissions-free vehicles. History and common sense tell us to be skeptical; most of them won't pan out. Several make promises that stretch credulity—even in a space that, like with other nascent technologies, routinely features outlandish claims about billions of dollars in future sales and total world domination.
One piece of advice: don’t roll the mere skeleton of a truck, sans motor, gently downhill and pass it off as a breakthrough commercial vehicle—a la Nikola, last year's fallen angel of next-gen car makers. (Note: Nikola is pursuing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, not battery-powered electric vehicles.)
The twin challenges for any new entrant are massive:
Building quality vehicles at scale
Convincing lots of people to buy those vehicles
Any newcomer that can pull this off might have a transformative impact on accelerating the shift to lower-emissions transportation. Who’s really got a shot at doing this? Below, I evaluate the players.
A contender has emerged…
Rivian
If you want to be the next Tesla, you actually need to be totally different from them. Don’t make electric sedans that would compete directly with the Model 3 and Model S, at least not yet. Don’t worry about the complexity of simultaneously launching passenger and commercial vehicles. Don’t have your CEO be an internet celebrity.
# of Twitter followers:
Elon Musk - 50 million
R.J. Scaringe - 26,000
Rivian may be one of the promising companies, in any sector, that most folks have never heard of. Rivian has raised over $8 billion in capital, employs over 3,500 people, and inked a deal with Amazon to supply 100,000 electric delivery vans by 2030. (For any kind of startup, a gigantic order from a legit enterprise partner, one that provides a long-term source of revenue—that’s the holy grail!) This week, those vans debuted in San Francisco, where I live, so I’m keeping my eyes peeled for a sighting…
The first deliveries of Rivian’s R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV are slated to hit within months. Expectations are incredibly high for vehicles that aim to combine the best qualities of Land Rover, Jeep, and Audi. But even that’s not enough for Rivian, which also recently announced grand plans for its own nationwide EV charging network.
From my day job, I know the latter ain’t easy. Even so, with continued production for Amazon, and if the R1T and R1S live up to the hype, plus a possible IPO later this year… the future is incredibly bright for Rivian.
Ones to keep an eye on…
Lucid Motors
If you want to be the next Tesla, you need to be a lot like them. Be fronted by Tesla’s former chief engineer of the Model S. Launch, like Tesla did, with one ultra-luxury, high-performance car. Offer better driving range than any other electric vehicles (besides, maybe, Tesla’s top-end offering).
Thus we have the Lucid Air, expected to debut later this year with a “Dream Edition” costing north of $160,000 but offering over 500 miles range on a single charge. Subsequent versions of the Air will enter at lower price points, down to “only” $70,000… The company has approximately 2,000 employees and is very well-funded: Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has poured over a billion dollars into the company, and that was prior to 2021’s highest-profile SPAC announcement.
That said, Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson has been clear that his company isn’t out to produce mass-market electric vehicles; his competition is luxury (gas) cars costing high-five-figures and six figures. So if Lucid is to have a major impact on the mass shift to emissions-free cars, it would come from demonstrating substantial battery technology advancements.
Fisker
If you want to be the next Tesla, you need to design very attractive vehicles. Few may be better suited than Henrik Fisker, a legend in the automotive industry responsible for designing the BMW Z8, Aston Martin DB9, and Aston Martin V8 Vantage.
Causes for excitement: Fisker went public via SPAC; the prototype for the mass-market Ocean SUV has been well received, with an affordable price point (and an innovative flexible lease), solid driving range, and production to be done by a reputable contract manufacturer (Magna).
Causes for skepticism: a decade ago Henrik Fisker had a different auto startup bearing his name, and it went bankrupt; plus, the Ocean’s launch date has been pushed back to late 2022.
Canoo
If you want to be the next Tesla, you need to make people entirely rethink their expectations for vehicles. OK, Canoo is far from being a serious contender right now—we’re at least a year away from the launch of their first passenger vehicle, and prices are still a mystery.
But the main reason people are excited about Canoo (including Apple, which discussed an investment or acquisition last year, before Canoo went public via SPAC) is the uniqueness of their designs, and what they imply for how EV technology can change how people use their cars. The company’s flagship product is like a living room on wheels, and the design of its newly announced snub-nose pickup truck harkens back to the 1960s while prioritizing utility.
Longshots…
In Jay-Z’s famous diss track “Takeover,” after multiple verses insulting his erstwhile rivals Nas and Mobb Deep, he turns his attention to lesser competitors:
All you other cats throwin’ shots at Jigga
You only get half a bar—[colorful expletives]!
And the song just ends like that. It’s tempting to be similarly dismissive of the assorted cast below:
Lordstown Motors has repeatedly delayed the release of its Endurance pickup truck and this week was targeted by the same short-seller who exposed Nikola’s shenanigans last year
Karma Automotive required a financial lifeline last year and is itself a Chinese-owned reincarnation of Henrik Fisker’s failed prior company
Faraday Future just raised nearly $1 billion in its SPAC merger, but for years has been known mostly for its financial struggles and management churn, not its plans to make showy supercars
Bollinger Motors, when you Google them, a suggested related search is “Dom Perignon or Cristal?” — which feels appropriate for a company that someday, eventually, will release its super-expensive supertrucks
I’ll be happy to be proven wrong if any of these break out of development hell or ultra-niche markets!